NFL 2006 Wrap Up and Playoff Predictions

Well, another season is done. I'm glad I wasn't able to devote much time to writing my weekly pick column this year, because I was terrible. This was by far the worst of the three seasons I've been doing this. Here's a week-by-week break down of my performance over the last three seasons:
A good start to the season, but then the abysmal. I finished 147-109, 18 games off from last year's 165-91. And my (revised) playoff seeding predictions didn't bear out too well, either. Well, I got all the division winners except the NFC East right, just in the wrong spots. But I totally whiffed on the wild-cards.

So with that record behind me, let's look at the post season. In the AFC, I kind of like New England's position at 4th seed. Next week's game against the Jets is quite winnable. But more importantly, Indy run defense goes against the Chiefs, which makes an upset quite possible. If so, then the Chiefs would travel to San Diego and the Patriots would avoid the Chargers for one more week. I do think a Patriot win over the Ravens is quite possible, thereby setting up a Chargers-Patriots AFC title game. Of course, it's all moot because the Chargers are head and shoulders over the rest of the conference (and league). So, while New England makes yet another run at the title, the Chargers will take them down in the conference title game. If Baltimore ends the New England run, then the Chargers will just destroy the Ravens instead.

In the NFC, I picked Dallas to win the conference. I actually like their spot at #5. They have to go on the road, true. But they get to play the weakest division winner in the playoffs in Seattle. Given that Philly should certainly be able to take down the weak Giants, that puts Dallas in Chicago the second week. Given Chicago's struggles on offense, that is winnable. Once the Saints manhandle the Eagles, we get the NFC title game in New Orleans against Dallas. How great would that be for the city!

Having said that, I have to note that every time the stakes have been raised for Dallas, they have crumpled big time. A few weeks ago, they faced the Saints with control of the #2 seed on the line, and got their butts kicked. Then they faced the Eagles with control of the division on the line, and repeated their performance. Finally, this weekend against a dismal Lion team, with a shot at the division title still on the table, they lost again. So can Dallas really do what I just said? I don't think so. So the alternative scenario would put Seattle in Chicago, a game the Bears should be able to take easily, resulting in a conference title game at Soldier Field against the Saints.

Either way, the Saints take the conference. They are too good on offense, and have a defense that isn't all that bad (#11 overall in the league, #13 in points allowed). With such a weak NFC, I can't see anybody taking them. Granted, they've had their share of bad games and are only 10-6. But, unlike Dallas, when the stakes have gone up, particularly against Dallas and the Giants (two playoff teams) in recent weeks, they have dominated. I do think the Cowboys are a more complete team, and if they play well have a shot at the title, but they just don't rise to the occasion like the Saints do.

So we get a Chargers-Saints Super Bowl, and you can just imagine the story lines there. Drew Brees against his old team and the guy who shoved him out. The superstar running back against the (supposedly) guaranteed future superstar running back. The league MVP against the runner-up (probably). But hype aside, that would be a good Super Bowl, but the Saints' magic ends there. As I said, the Chargers are head and shoulders over everyone else this year. Their only liability is Schottenheimer and his dismal record in the playoffs. But this is probably the best team he's ever had.